The war involved the Democratic Republic of the Eastern Congo (DRC) in 2025. The Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group has acquired strategic cities in both states of North Kivu from the DRC government forces and threatened to move further west. Millions of Congoes are currently evacuated. In late February, DRC Prime Minister Judith Sominwa told Geneva's Human Rights Council that 7,000 people had been killed since January.
The African Union (AU) supported the Luanda Process in 2022 with the goal of achieving peace in the region through diplomatic channels. The DRC and M23 were scheduled to begin consultations in the Angola capital on March 18th, following important diplomatic efforts. However, at the last minute, the rebel groups withdrew citing sanctions the European Union imposed on senior members on March 17th.
Shortly after the cancelled consultations, Angola President João Lourenzo said his role as a mediator in the conflict would end. “Angola recognizes the need to release it from responsibility to mediate this conflict… to bring a more comprehensive focus on the general priorities established by continental organizations,” the president said in a statement.
Just a few days later, on March 23, DRC President Felix Tsushisekedi and Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame began in-person meetings in Doha, mediated by the Qatar chief. Leaders called for an “immediate ceasefire” in their speech when the two leaders first met since the M23 rebels stepped up the attack.
In April, the M23 was drawn from the Welkale, the captured city. On April 24, the DRC and M23 agreed to halt fighting in the country's east until Qatar-mediated peace negotiations reached a “conclusion.”
Why did African mediation fail?
Why did Katari-brokered lectures have more success than Luanda's process? Fidel Ouso, an international relations analyst for Ghana-based DEFSEC analysis, says that in the end Angola had no influence to acquire contradictory parties committed to meaningful dialogue.
“In negotiations and mediation, you need a mediator who carries heavy carrots and sticks, which will make the parties aware that if they refuse to do something specific, the mediator is likely to act in a certain way.
“Lourec' has great respect in the region, and Angola has built up his wealth with its vast oil resources, but at the end of the day it doesn't have the weight it needs. Ruhrens doesn't have enough carrots and sticks.”
In contrast, Qatar has invested heavily in both Rwanda and the DRC, particularly Rwanda. In particular, Qatar Airways has agreed to acquire a 60% stake in the new $1.3 billion international airport. This gives Doha leverage and strong incentives to engage. This is because reputational risks caused by Rwanda's support for the M23 could also affect Qatar.
“People involved in Rwanda are at a great reputation risk right now. Large football clubs like Arsenal, PSG and Bayern are being urged to remove partnerships with Rwanda and the country that will damage those with the country's economic interests.”
Daniel Vandalen, senior analyst at Signal Risk, said M23 has recognised the intimacy between the Angolan and DRC governments and raised questions about Luanda's role as an honest broker in consultations.
Angola is a member of the South African Development Community (SADC) and deployed troops in eastern Congo until its mandate ended in mid-March following the deaths of 18 troops, including 14 from South Africa.
“Angola was considered part of the DRC by the M23 and Rwanda. The Luanda process was considered a SADC-driven process, but that is not entirely true.
Previously, the DRC believed that the EAC (East African Community) was leading the Nairobi Process, an alternative peace effort. In February, an analyst at the Security Institute said DRC and Rwanda were “forum shopping” in the Nairobi and Luanda process.
“The AU process is difficult in most cases because there is a perception of bias from one side,” says Van Darren. “It has been extremely difficult to find an impartial mediator in recognition, as geopolitical blocs and small alliances are formed. The AU itself is becoming less and less capable of mediation.”
It's not completely useless
However, the efforts for Angola's peace were not completely in vain. Ochieng says that the process created a critical channel for communication between the parties.
“It was definitely important to have a constant anchor point for this conflict. If it wasn't there, there would have been no one to explain either party,” she says.
More than that, it created an important framework to unlock conflicting forces in this region. “The EAC (East Africa Community) and SADC framework under development provide guidance in the development of long-term solutions. External mediators will undoubtedly help you move forward with the first step.
Recognizing the need to maintain the momentum of their peace efforts, the AU launched a new mediation process led by Togo's President Faure Gnassingbe, facilitated by many former African leaders appointed by the SADC and EAC.
He recognizes that it is still unknown whether this will be successful, Owusu says. “I'm coming down again to the theory of carrots and sticks. There's a lack of leverage. What can I give to me to talk to my enemies? If Angola fails to achieve peace, I won't see President Togo achieve it.”
Washington is based on Qatar's efforts
While Africa's mediation attempts have uttered, Qatar's mediation has reached a diplomatic breakthrough in recent weeks. Not only did they bring to talk about the DRC, Rwanda and the M23, but it also led to the ceasefire on April 23 while the parties worked towards a permanent ceasefire.
Recent efforts have also been strengthened by the role of the US. On April 25, representatives of the DRC and Rwandan signed the Declaration of Principles and agreed to work to reach the draft peace agreement by May 2. They also committed to respecting each other's sovereignty and “territorial integrity.”
At this year's rally, African leaders have repeatedly called for increased cooperation between African countries, but the interstate tensions prevailed in several parts of the continent leave the goals more aspirations than reality. That African countries and the AU cannot succeed in mediating the Dr. Congo – brokers like Qatar and the US will have consequences, but a regression against the causes of continental unity. That lack of unity could impact economic integration through mechanisms like Africa's continental free trade zones, Owusu says.
“Sometimes, leaders say we should separate from politics from economics, and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA) is likely to lead to regional growth without the need to talk about politics.
