Nigeria's economy is reviving, but headwinds are expected.
This was a subtext of conversations and interactions at a high-level global forum hosted by the Central Bank of Nigeria, in collaboration with JP Morgan and the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) held at the Nasdaq Market Site in New York City on April 17, 2025.
Hosted ahead of the 2025 IMF & World Bank Group Spring Meeting, the forum provided the opportunity for CBN to present scorecards in front of global investors, diaspora leaders and senior financial stakeholders.
The main purpose was to engage with critical voices, measure investors' moods and appetites, and create a path for the future with an emphasis on building lasting partnerships and attracting long-term capital.
It was held in a presentation highlighting the results from the CBN Reform Agenda in Nigeria, led by Governor Oleiemi Kaldoso, with a forum, “Nigeria Investment Agenda: A Pathways for Growth and Global Partnerships” over the past 18 months.
These reforms, asserted by CBN, “lay the foundation for long-term macroeconomic stability and inform a new era of transparency and confidence.”
But are investors careful?
During the “Relicate Nigeria: Assessment of the Scope of Continuous Change” panel, Jason Lekard, global co-head of corporate banking at Citi, said the conversation on Nigeria's investments is now more positive.
“Clients are asking how quickly they can get in.
Joyce Chang, chairman of JPMorgan Chase's global research, was even more cautious. “Nigeria has made progress, but oil price volatility remains a significant risk.”
CBN releases data encouraging
A week before the forum, CBN released a press release highlighting the country's economic performance in 2024. The surplus of payments of $6830 million for the fiscal year 2024 represents a $3.34 billion deficit in 2023 and a $3.32 billion turnaround in 2022. Nigeria's economy. ”
Other highlights cited by the bank include a 48.3% increase in gas exports increased to $8.666 billion, non-oil exports increased by 24.6% to $7.466 billion, remittance inflows increased by 8.9% to $2.09 billion, and a surge from International Gold Remittance Operator Transactions (IMTO) to 4.73BN to 4.73BN (IMTO).
There was a slight 6.2% increase in official development aid, and portfolio investment inflows rose 106.5% to $133.5 billion, rising to $3.377 billion, while external reserves rose to $6 billion, up $4.019 billion.
Optimism tempered by the fear of oil
The data shows a welcome diversification of revenue streams and a stronger engagement and response from the Nigerian diaspora, which was brought to trial on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meeting last year, but investors are cautious.
CBN's financial policy rate remains the same at 27.5%, so inflation rate is still in double digits, at 23.18%. Naira, who recorded some profits against the dollar in the first quarter of the year, lost ground but is now stable at N1,599.94 on the greenback.
However, Nigeria, the petroleum sector, lags behind the OPEC quota of 1.5m BPD, an ambitious 26 million bpd target it sets. The headwinds from President Donald Trump's tariffs and the unfolding global trade crisis led to Brent crude prices falling more than 20% from $74.95 on April 2nd to April 9th, when it reached $58.46 a barrel. Currently, the price is around $65 per barrel, which is far below the budget benchmark of $75 per barrel, putting the country's revenue forecast at risk. Oil is expected to account for 56% of expected 2025 revenue.
What will the future hold? Governor Cardoso told Africa Business that he remains well.
“This forum was more than just a mental encounter, it was a moment of calculation and update,” he pointed out.
“We have confirmed that Nigeria is on the right path, but it reminds us that credibility can be achieved through consistency. As we continue to continue reform, we are committed to creating open engagement, evidence-based policies and building lasting partnerships that can unlock Nigeria's true investment potential.”
On Friday, April 25th, 2025, the IMF/World Bank Africa Bureau will hold a press conference on the regional economic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa.
