On June 25th and July 7th, most young protesters scored to streets in Nairobi and other urban areas in Kenya, expressing their dissatisfaction with the national government. They called for an end to police brutality and condemned the alleged use of extrajudicial methods to suppress political opposition. They also criticized the government for not doing enough to address unemployment, end corruption and waste among public service youth and reduce costs of living.
In a familiar but intrusive pattern, most peaceful demonstrations added elements to fight police, destroy property and engage in looted businesses. Government buildings, including several police stations, were erupted in the chaos that followed.
Authorities responded with deadly force, with 61 deaths – 21 on June 25th and 40 on July 7th, according to the Kenya Human Rights Commission (KNCHR). The country's national police have challenged these figures, claiming that a total of 42 deaths have been officially recorded in both protests.
Politicians exchange denunciations
After the July protests, President William Root lay blame on his political opponents for denounced violence and destruction and accusing him of “sponsoring” the chaos to undermine his leadership through undemocratic means.
“We cannot accept mayhem and disorder to destroy the development of this country. This country will not be destroyed by a few impatient people and by those who want to change the government using unconstitutional means,” Ruto said at a political rally in Nairobi's Kilimani region.
Politicians who opposed Ruto's government allege that those who incited violence during the protest were deployed by shadowy political operatives acting on secret orders from state authorities. The government has defied these claims steadfastly.
Kenya's political landscape remains violently divided. Opposition figures appear to be coalesced around former vice president Rigati Gachagua, who appeared as one of the government's most intense critics after last year's ammo each. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party trades for long-time opposition leader Laila Odinga, who has been caught up in a joint movement with Root.
Amidst these political changes, some observers fear that the real issues that have driven young Kenyans to the streets will be forgotten and along with accountability for the mayhem that undermines the protest.
I crushed my predictions
John Wahome, a mathematics lecturer at Laikipia University and a regular opinion columnist for Kenya's standards, tells African business that he was one of millions of Kenyan voters who were looking forward to the rise of Ruto in high hopes of a presidency in 2022. But things were completely different.
“Lut took over in a great atmosphere of goodwill and truly victory for most of the country. I was as excited as others who were hoping for a new distribution carried by fresh common people like me – a self-declared 'hustler',” Wahome says.
On the campaign trail, Root has pledged to empower ordinary people in Kenya (including the so-called “hustlers”) and take on the political and business elite. However, after winning the election, he was furious with his supporters in the move to raise taxes, claiming that the previous administration, which was part of the two-term vice president, had achieved sustained high levels of debt.
Wahome argues that it wasn't Root's economic policy that only led the masses. Another major concern is that he refuses to listen carefully to the public or accept criticism.
This is an important issue for many young people in the country that are “unhearing” despite marching on the streets, Wahome says.
“I have had many opportunities to interact with young minds and hear their perspectives, highlighting their longing to be leaders who can actively listen, reducing economic opportunities and giving hope and security on the national stage.
“They need leadership to tell them the truth and maintain their promises. Above all, they need for the foresight to faithfully manage the resources of their people without the tendencies of grafts or nepotism. For the president, they need someone who can honestly address the troublesome questions,” Wahome says.
Testing Investor Trust
It is not the first time that Kenya has been shaken by protests in Lut's presidency. Last year, young Kenyans took him on the streets against the proposed tax payment, bringing events that reflected this year's unrest. There have been extensive destruction of property, looting, and fatal clashes with police. The government has since pledged to look into complaints filed, as it promised to do this year.
However, many of the demands of the last protesters this year were not met, causing fears about a future recurring of deadly anti-government protests. Experts warn of sustained waves
Such protests could lead to important tests of investor confidence and economic stability.
“Investor sentiment is a bit cautious right now,” says Brian Waleur, manager of international tax and trading services at consultant EY (formerly Ernst & Young), in response to the July protest. He tells African businesses that they weigh the risks of investors putting money into the country amid rising political temperatures.
“It's been three years since the current government, and we're already in the mood for election. From an investor's perspective, it will lead to delays in investment and businesses will be expanding or suspending employment in anticipation of political uncertainty,” he says. Political pressure could also lead to what we describe as “policy volatility,” when the government reverses key policy decisions to appease its people. This makes it difficult for businesses to plan for long-term plans and limits the flow of investment into the economy.
Financial revision?
In addition to finding a peaceful solution to growing political unrest, Walulu argues that Kenya needs financial revisions to boost investors' confidence. According to Statista, the country's debt has been inflated over the past decade as the government borrowed to fund infrastructure development, shifting from 41% of GDP in 2014 to 73% in 2023. This has resulted in a sharp increase in debt service costs and an increased fiscal deficit, reducing unnecessary spending for the state and focusing on mobilizing additional revenues.
“We have a budget of 4.2 trillion Sherol ($32.5 billion), but we have revenues of 3.3 trillion ($25.5 billion), so we still have a deficit of around 800 million ($6.2 billion) that the government is trying to sort out,” Waruru said. He points out that in order to increase revenue and reduce deficits, the government is trying to widen the tax base, seal off leaks and improve tax management.
“The current policy shift in the Financial Act in 2025 will see a change in policy from rising taxes to the management measures we are trying to implement to expand our tax base,” says Waruru, who cites the increasing use of digital technology to improve efficiency and seal off revenue leaks.
Sébastien Conway, CEO of Dublin-based Ascoria Technologies, told businesses in Africa that the revenue leakage issue “is that people who actually pay taxes pay more taxes, and those who avoid it continue to avoid it.” He says digital tools can help end leaks and promote transparency.
In addition to improving tax management, Kenyan authorities are also considering improving revenue collection from the fast growth, such as the digital economy, and production sector. In December, the country introduced a Key Economic Being (SEP) tax aimed at addressing the challenge of taxing digital landscapes.
This new tax framework is looking to capture revenue from high-tech companies that generate substantial revenues from Kenya without maintaining a physical presence in the country. This includes services offered through digital markets such as e-commerce sites, social media channels, streaming services, ride apps and freelance platforms.
Conway welcomes the move, but warns that a balanced consulting approach to implementation is needed to promote fairness for all players in the digital economy.
“In terms of enacting these laws and regulations, you need to be non-discriminatory, and you cannot target only a specific group or company within the digital economy.
“This is the entire subset of the economy that needs to be addressed in a specific, fair and equitable way right now. Many countries don't want to narrow down startups or innovation, so these factors need to be considered.”
Emotions overturn economic victory
The broader efforts of the route to stabilize the Kenya economy have resulted in some positive results. According to the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), Shilling was strengthened thanks to a $1.5 billion bond sales in February 2024 and accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, reaching a record high of $1.1201 billion on July 10th. Meanwhile, inflation has slowed, and government borrowing costs have declined along with local interest rates, creating some degree of financial maneuverability.
However, these victories are hidden by negative sentiments over Root's presidency and the government's fierce crackdown on protesters. Some commentators are doing it as long as they suggest that they need to rethink their running for reelection in 2027.
“Given the damage to Root's reputation over the past three years, a less contaminated successor would likely be more likely to reform Kenya’s needs.
For Wahome, the question of whether Root will support reelection in 2027 is second only to more pressing concerns. It is the need for Kenya to undertake a broad overhaul of the political system to narrow the gap between leaders and LEDs.
“Now, most Kenyans live on the day they become politicians who have begun real life near Till, explaining the mood of our endless campaign and the snowballs of politics to the huge and endless national preconceptions.”
