The battle for succession is simmering within Zimbabwe's ruling party, bringing further uncertainty to businesses in an already vulnerable economy.
President Emerson Mnangagwa's allies want to amend the constitution to extend it for at least two years while rival factions support Vice President Constantino Chiwenga.
Business in Harare was halted on March 31 after former Zanu-PF Central Committee member Blessed Geza called for a massive nationwide protest against Mnangagwa.
A call by Geza of Chiwenga Ally closed the Zimbabwean capital Harare, businesses closed and streets abandoned (photo).
It is a movement to extend Mnangawa's term of office until at least two years, taking hundreds of people to the streets and barricaded roads and singing songs to the 2030 agenda. More than 100 people have been arrested and charged with participating in unauthorized demonstrations.
Zimbabwe has not received major protests since 2019, when the troops were deployed to protesters who took them to the streets after a 150% fuel price hike.
Mnangagwa, who last won his re-election in August 2023, is currently serving his second final term, scheduled to end in 2028.
Chiwenga, former commander of the Zimbabwean Defence Force, played a key role in the military coup that overthrew longtime ruler Robert Mugabe in November 2017, when Mnangagwa spurred power.
Chiwenga supporter Geza appeared in the media last month, accusing Mnangagwa of corruption and economic dismantling.
Last Wednesday, Geza said he is pushing Mnangagwa to blast each based on health, given the president's control of Congress.
Fragile recovery
Political instability can knock Zimbabwe's ever-vulnerable business confidence.
The World Bank expects economic growth of 6% in 2025, due to recovery from last year's El Nino drought, increased investment in mining and tourism, and improved financial stability.
Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube expresses his confidence that the country will achieve growth forecasts and cites efforts in agriculture, mineral beneficiaries, particularly Platinum Group Metals (PGM) and Lithium – and government's efforts in tight control of finances.
In recent months, the government has taken an important step towards securing future financial support from international lenders when it agreed to compensate foreign farmers covered by the bilateral investment treaty where farms were seized in the controversial and violent land reform programme of the early 2000s.
The country is reportedly looking for sponsors to help clear around $21 billion in historic debt arrears that will help unlock new financial aid.
However, ordinary Zimbabweans continue to tackle food insecurity, aging infrastructure and inflation of average consumer prices once the IMF project reaches 23.6% this year. Zimbabwe replaced the local currency of the disease in April last year with another currency called Zimbabwe Gold (ZIG), which was backed by gold and foreign reserves of $550 million. However, the central bank reduced the new currency by 43% in September 2024.
Denford Mutash, president of Zimbabwe Retailers (CZR) Alliance, said the government's forecasts for 6% economic growth in 2025, fixed on agriculture and mining recovery, is cautiously optimistic, but adds that structural challenges threaten to undermine these ambitions.
“As closures of some companies are clear, they will maintain a shortage of electricity and high production costs,” he says.
Local supermarket chain Choppies left Zimbabwe in January and cited a harsh economic environment dominated by informal businesses and volatile currencies. Truworths, a once-rich clothing retailer, was sold at nominal fees after taking part in the corporate rescue process, but another supermarket in OK has closed several branches across the country and is struggling to restock.
Farai Muthambanerenwe, CEO of Zimbabwe's Small Business Association, says the government's forecasts of economic growth are not in sync with reality.
“Because there is a tendency to differ from living reality and experience on earth, it is becoming increasingly difficult to assess or agree to any salient gross domestic product (GDP) estimates by the Treasury.”
“We have years of GDP numbers showing growth right now, but we are facing a collapsed formal sector, unformalization and declining domestic demand,” Mutambanengwe said.
Will metal become silver bullets?
Against this challenging background, Ncube points out the possibility of developing a favorable metals industry based on the country's lithium and PGM resources.
Mutashu agrees that excessive reliance on raw mineral exports without value added has made the economy vulnerable to commodity price volatility. Last year, a major decline in platinum prices forced businesses to cut workers and close several mines.
“Growth in the mining sector requires local beneficiaries to maintain value and employment within the country,” he says.
The government moved in 2022 to ban the export of raw raw lithium, but illegal smuggling continues.
Some lithium companies, including China-owned Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, Sinomine Resource Group and Chengxin Lithium Group, are investing in the construction of lithium treatment plants.
However, intermittent power sources in the country are another challenge that local metals industry must overcome to become a serious contributor to growth. In 2023, China's Zimbabwe Ambassador Zhou Ding said that electricity shortages and high energy prices are a major block for the production of battery-grade lithium.
A fundamental change is required
With the economy facing so many challenges, it is unlikely that uncertainty about political succession will be welcomed by investors. However, without further driving forces towards political reform, the country is unlikely to see significant progress in rectifying years of difficulties.
Oxford Economics Africa's economist Lylebegby says Zimbabwe faces several institutional challenges that hinder the broad distribution of economic benefits.
“Without fundamental political change, we are unlikely to sustain economic growth outside of the sample sector,” he says.
